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I had a conversation with someone who told me they felt stuck. Not because they lacked options, but because every option felt risky. Their fear wasn’t the decision itself. It was the possibility of being wrong.
I’ve felt that same hesitation. You probably have too. We judge our choices based on what happens next. If the outcome is positive, we feel smart. If it goes sideways, we think we missed something. The problem is simple. Outcomes are noisy. Processes are not.
This is where Annie Duke’s work hits hard. She spent years making high-pressure decisions at poker tables where luck shows up whenever it wants. The only way to stay sane was to separate decision quality from short-term results. That distinction is more useful in real life than most people realize.
Here is the insight. Uncertainty doesn’t punish bad decisions. It punishes sloppy ones. When your process is clean, you can lose a hand and still know you made the right call. When your process is unclear, even a win teaches you nothing.
So here is the system I use. Define what you want. Break the decision into parts. Map the realistic and the unlikely. Challenge your assumptions. Review your process, not your scorecard.
When you focus on process over outcomes, something shifts. You stop fearing uncertainty. You start learning from everything.
Actionable Tip
Pick one decision you're facing right now. Spend 15 minutes working through this checklist:
Write down your goal.
List the smaller factors or questions involved.
Map possible outcomes for each factor.
Note any assumptions or biases you're bringing in.
Decide based on your best rational estimate, not just gut feeling.
Reflection Question
Think about a recent decision you judged only by its outcome. How would your view change if you evaluated your thinking process instead?
Related Reading
"Thinking in Bets" by Annie Duke: Goes deeper on uncertainty and decision quality.
"The Art of Thinking Clearly" by Rolf Dobelli: Covers the cognitive biases that mess with your choices.
The Farnam Street podcast episodes on decision making: Practical frameworks for better decisions.
Recommended Reading
You don’t need more noise, but you do need the right signal. Here are four newsletters I trust for clarity, momentum, and meaningful growth. Each one earns its place in my inbox…now they can earn a spot in yours.
